The Kremlin’s draft peace agreement may be the end of the Russia-Ukraine war
The Kremlin said on Friday that a 2022 Russia-Ukraine draft agreement proposed back in 2022 could be the initial marker for prospective peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Paskov said the draft was initially discussed in Istanbul in March 2022 and could form the basis of the proposed peace talks between the warring countries. He also added that the “new realities” of the conflict will also be taken into account in “future peace talks.”
The 2022 peace draft agreement was rejected by Ukraine previously as its terms lied heavily in Russia’s favour. As to why Ukraine would be interested in the old draft, Paskov remarked, “There have been many changes since then; new entities have been included in our constitution.” Hinting at a possible change in the Russian point of view of the Ukraine war.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European theatre of war has seen immense mobilisation in the past few years, with massive casualties and the loss of essential infrastructure on either side of the front.
The document was announced by Kremlin in Istanbul peace summit, mere weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reportedly contained a stringent neutral status imposition on the country, barring it from joining any international treaty organisations such as the NATO.
The document also aimed to put restraints on Ukraine’s military personnel while disrupting any potential for diplomatic talks in the Russia-occupied regions of Ukraine.
Russia’s unwillingness to concede terms to Ukraine resulted in a deadlock, with Ukraine rejecting the proposed peace draft soon after the biased terms were established.
The Kremlin does not want Ukraine to join NATO at any cost
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly warned that the entry of NATO directly on the Ukrainian war front will trigger a nuclear response, thereby preventing NATO or other international entities from interfering in the conflict directly. Putin has also cited the presence of long-range missiles being positioned in NATO member states as a “red line” issue for Kremlin, as it threatens Russia’s overall territorial integrity.
In a way, it can be said that without Russia’s declaration of war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Ukraine would have been integrated into NATO, but Russia’s preparation for the special military operation into Ukraine concerned NATO about the prospect of integrating with a country in conflict.
Despite not being under NATO, Ukraine has received a considerable amount of financial help as well as state-of-the-art military hardware that has thwarted Russia’s movement across the country. Highly sophisticated anti-tank weaponry like the British N-Law and US Javelins has proven extremely effective against Soviet-era armoured vehicles.
With the west’s assistance in the form of weapons, food, and economic sanctions against Russia, Ukraine is bound to emerge victorious, but the recent conflict between Gaza and Israel has significantly reduced arms exports and humanitarian aid exports in the European war front, as now the world witnesses not one but two global conflicts that have claimed hundreds and thousands of innocent lives so far.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly appealed to NATO and western allies like the US, France, Poland, the UK, and Germany to send more aid and military supplies to effectively recapture the regions occupied by Russia (the Crimean Peninsula, Donetsk, Luhansk, etc.). He has also stressed that delays in sending arms and ammunition are reflected in Ukraine’s battlefield losses. Further stressing that the need for effective and steady transport of weapons supplies is critical to maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The Kremlin has fewer allies than before the Ukraine war
On Thursday, Russia rejected Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace formula, calling for Moscow to withdraw all troops, pay compensation to Ukraine, and face an international tribunal for its actions.
The Ukrainian peace formula will be set forth in the upcoming peace talks to be hosted by Switzerland in hopes of achieving peace and stability in the region.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that Russia has not been invited to the Switzerland peace talks in June. He further added, “They aren’t inviting us there; moreover, they think there is nothing for us to do there, but at the same time, they say that it’s impossible to decide anything without us. It would have been funny if it weren’t so sad.”.
One of Putin’s closest allies, the Belarusian president, has said, “Russia is open to negotiating but will never accept any schemes that have nothing to do with reality.” Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has found itself diplomatically alienated, with only Iran, Belarus, South Africa, and Mali still supporting the war, while the rest of the world stands neutral or condemns Russia for its extremist military campaign.
